Saturday, June 13, 2009
Red Sox fans are jubilant, but will it make sense in the long run?
The rest of the league having no leg up on Boston leaves just the Red Sox and Blue Jays to analyze. We know they are legitimate even in the wake of their own limited problems and the Blue Jays. The Jays lost two out of three at home to the Yankees and past Roy Halladay, they haven't had a successful starting pitcher capable of staying healthy. The problem with Toronto is they were dominant until they played real competition, and their flaws, which consisted of timely hitting and a healthy and effective rotation past Halladay, is likely to be super exposed against really good teams. Though the Yankees have their reliever issues, they have the rotation and offense to sustain such problems, the Blue Jays' best strength is their bullpen, but you're only going to see the bullpen in an important situation if the Jays lead, and they will only lead if their weaknesses; a consistent offense and talented rotation, can step up, which they can't. So yes, being swept is never good and the Yankees have not beaten their biggest competition almost halfway into the season series, but keep in mind a few things: Six of those eight games have been at Fenway Park, and of the eight, only this three-game series was against a Yankees team even remotely near full strength. The problem with that excuse if you expect the Red Sox to improve too, they have their own injuries and they will likely fill those holes, but still, six out of eight games at home is a benefit. The two teams won't play each other until after the trade deadline, likely, their next series will be the best feel of all as to where the teams stand. As of right now, the Red Sox are a better team (they're in first) and a superior opponent (they are, again, 8-0). The problem the Yankees have is their biggest weakness (the bullpen) is very vulnerable because it's rare for starters to last long against a patient Red Sox offense. The Sox on the other hand, have a great bullpen, so when the Yankees' offense can knock one of their pitchers out of the game, it's not a huge benefit like it is for Boston (though they did manage four runs against the Sox bullpen this series). Both offenses can score, both rotations are capable of getting the job done (the Sox have only won one of the eight games by a large margin), but right now it's night and day with the Yankees and Red Sox bullpens. New York needs arms, but contrary to popular belief, they have the resources to get them. They have prospects in the farm system they will be willing to part with (such as the names necessary to get a Nick Swisher in the offseason). Top notch relievers will net their teams a nice name or two, but the Yankees aren't looking for an ace, or an entirely new bullpen, or a middle of the order hitter, they're looking for two arms who can throw strikes and get big outs. That's not earth shattering. Alfredo Aceves is effective to eat up innings, he is the perfect sixth and seventh inning arm. Phil Coke could be used for an inning four times a week. Phil Hughes is an ideal bullpen arm and he will remain there if Wang can figure out his mechanics. It's not a guarantee, but Wang's problem isn't velocity, it's location, those things are more easily correctable when you have a history of having control. Even if Hughes does replace the former 19 game winner, Wang has had success in the bullpen in limited time this season as well. Mariano Rivera is the closer, plain and simple, and if Brian Bruney is healthy, he's a necessary power arm. That's four, possibly five solid arms in the bullpen. New York could use one or two more. Will Marte be one? Can Veras straighten out? It's possible, but not something to be counted on at this point in the season, just like the Sox can't expect Ortiz to be a difference maker anymore even if he does hit well against the Yankees still. New York needs some help in relief, but it's not impossibly to obtain that. And that's it. That's their problem. If the Yankees had these arms, they would have won the first game the two teams played against each other, they would have held the 6-0 lead in the second game and they likely would have won last night. All of a sudden it would have been 5-3 in the season series and nobody is saying anything. But that's not the state of the team right now and if anything, this past series should have sent that message loud and clear. The problem with quantifying games is they all count for something. The Yankees are better against the rest of the league than Boston is. They are historically dominant against all west teams minus the Angels and the Angels don't have the same formula they used to for beating New York. This is a traditional second half team with a .500 record or better against every team but Boston in the AL. True they are 1-2 against the Phillies, the final game being decided in extra innings, but the Sox are 1-2 against the Mets, so that's not proving much. Interleague counts in the standings, not in the "you're playing a contender" category. There are way too many variables to try to compare NL teams to AL teams during the regular season starting with pitching matchups. When you play each other once, it's not enough to evaluate anything. New York is 8-3 against AL West teams and the only one they have yet to play is Seattle, whom they will likely beat as badly as the rest of the division on the west coast or at home. Speaking of which, more than half of those games were on the West Coast, the Yankees don't have the same problems Boston does in the West. The Yankees are 13-5 against the Central and they will likely continue beating those teams up all season long. Eliminate Boston, and the Yankees are competitive in the East as well, standing at 12-8. So don't overblow this, the Yankees have a problem with Boston, not with the team and not with the league. They haven't overachieved, they have overcome injuries and stayed focus, this team is only going to improve from here on out. And as much as Boston fans would like you to believe it, they won't finish 18-0 against the Yankees this season, at some point that monkey is going to come off the back as well. The Yankees are 9-6 in one run games, and 9-3 if you eliminate Boston. They are above .500 on the road and at home, including games with Boston and are six games above .500 since May 1st. To try to belittle what New York has done to the rest of the league because your team has dominated them is childish and stupid. It's something for a child to comment about, not an avid sports fan. The Yankees are here to stay this year, and only having one flaw, it shouldn't be too difficult to correct it at some point. Will the bullpen cost the team more games between now and July 31st? It's likely. It's also likely Burnett does better than he has since April and the real Sabathia is here to stay. Joba will continue to grow and so will Hughes. Xavier Nady will eventually further deepen the offense. There is still improvements on the way, and law of averages still has some catching up to do for New York. This is a division race not likely to go away anytime soon, even if one team has a free three game swing every time they play the other. It's funny how when one person makes a comment to discount an 11-game winning streak, pointing out how Boston would have been way under .500 at the time without that two week stretch where they played well, that person was criticized. Yet these same people seem to think a nine-game winning streak should be discounted because "only two games" came against Toronto and the rest were sub .500 teams? How does that work exactly? So if you eliminate the Yankees nine-game winning streak, they are a .500 team? It's true, the problem is, the same teams the Yankees beat during that stretch were six of the 11 games during Boston's streak, the same coveted streak untouchable to criticism. Meanwhile, Oakland and Cleveland, who made up an additional two games of Boston's streak are a combined 13 games under .500 while Toronto, who made up two games of the Yankees' streak is six games over .500. So much for the lack of hypocrisy. Is it frustrating the Yankees have some statistical fluke against Boston? Yes. Yes it is. And a fluke is what this has become. The following teams have beaten Boston this year: Tampa Bay, Oakland, Cleveland, LA, Seattle, Toronto, NY (the Mets), Minnesota and Texas. Are the Yankees worse than all of these teams? No, they aren't. In fact, I'd go out on a limb and say they are better than every single team listed above. Baseball is a tricky sport, but the important thing is to stay focused even when your team is on a high because throughout the year, there will be many high's and many low's. Acting foolish or losing composure during either stretch can be dampering, especially when your team switches sides. The Red Sox are two games in first place, that's the most important thing to come out of these past three games. They have the history, pedigree, confidence, record and depth to win the division. If the playoffs started today, they would likely beat the Yankees in a seven-game series. The problem is, they don't, neither two plays for two weeks and the wild card does exist. The Red Sox should know, they've won it the most times out of any team ever, and that includes one of their two World Series seasons in recent memory. The season isn't half over yet and the games will only intensify from here on out. Let Boston have their tea party, but who knows if and when a massacre is right around the corner.
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